webGuinée

Mark Tran
Prepare for the worst in Guinea

The Guardian
28 October 2009

Signs that an attack on protesters in Guinea had an ethnic dimension stoke fears that tensions will escalate into conflict.

Mark Tran

When a group of junior soldiers mutinied and seized power in Guinea last December after the death of President Lansana Conté, the people of this impoverished west African state may have harboured hopes for better things to come.

For 24 years, Guinea — a country endowed with vast mineral wealth, including bauxite — suffered under the brutal rule of Conté, who had seized power from Ahmed Sékou Touré, under whose dominion thousands disappeared or were tortured. The mid-ranking officers led by Captain Moussa Dadis Camara dissolved the constitution, called themselves the National Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD) and promised to stamp out Guinea's widespread corruption and improve life for the long-suffering population.

But whatever initial sympathy the military junta may have enjoyed has ceded to revulsion following the massacre of peaceful demonstrators a month ago. Human Rights Watch has released a detailed report on killings and rapes at a rally in the capital, Conakry, allegedly organised and committed by the largely elite presidential guard, known as the Red Bérets.

In what the group said was an act of premeditation, members of the guard surrounded and blockaded the stadium where the rally took place, then stormed and fired at protesters until they ran out of bullets. The troops carried out gang rapes and killed at least 150 people. The protests reflected mounting public anger against Camara, who has reneged on pledges not to run for president in elections scheduled for January.

The massacre, which was marked today by tens of thousands of striking workers, has sent shock waves around the region amid fears that instability in Guinea could spread to neighbouring Sierra Leone and Liberia. Both remain fragile states after years of particularly brutal conflict.

The EU has imposed an arms embargo, following a similar move from the African regional grouping, Ecowas, on the former French colony and is drawing up a list of 42 Guinean leaders that will be included in a visa ban. The quick response from the EU and Guinea's neighbours stem from the fear that current tensions will escalate into ethnic conflict with terrible repercussions for the region.

There are already signs that Camara and his clique are playing the ethnic card. Human Rights Watch noted the shock of many Guineans following last month's massacre at the apparent ethnic nature of the violence. Most of the victims were from the Peuhl ethnic group, which is mainly Muslim, while most of the commanders at the stadium and key junta members, including Camara, belong to ethnic groups that are largely Christian or animist. Many of the Peuhl victims reported being threatened or abused on account of their ethnicity. One woman who was gang raped by men in uniform wearing red berets described how her attackers referred repeatedly to her ethnicity with the threat: “We're tired of your tricks … we're going to finish all the Peuhl.”

The International Crisis Group (ICG), the Brussels think-tank, has also sounded the alarm at the possibility that divisions with the junta could fracture along ethnic lines.

“Current tensions in the military are not a purely ethnic phenomenon. But the ethnic aspect could potentially act as an instability multiplier in the event of a further breakdown,” the group warned.

There are all too many unemployed young men, brutalised by past conflicts and ready to take arms along ethnic lines in west Africa. As these ethnic groups straddle borders, regional leaders are understandably alarmed at the potential for cross-border clashes — not to speak of a refugee crisis that would inevitably ensue from any conflict.

Britain has an interest in ensuring peace. After Tony Blair sent 200 troops to avert civil conflict in Sierra Leone, it pledged to send support if instability returned. Whether Britain has the wherewithal to live up to that guarantee, with its forces stretched in Afghanistan is another matter. Incidentally, Britain is implicated in Guinea as last month's brutal attacks involved British-supplied armoured cars, according to Amnesty International.

The best hope for Guinea is that Camara and his cronies — having seen the potential for chaos should they cling to power — seize on the good offices of Ecowas, the African Union and the UN to make a graceful exit. The international community — including China, which has been drawn to Guinea's minerals — should throw its support behind the Forces Vives, the umbrella group of opposition parties and civil society, which has been standing up to the junta and whose bottom line is that the junta should give up power and make way for free elections in January. In light of Guinea's history, where rule by strongmen has been the norm, there is not much room for optimism.

The ICG argues that the UN, AU and Ecowas should plan for a rapid intervention in the event that the army fragments, the country divides along ethnic lines and a battle begins for Conakry. It is a sombre scenario, but it would be better for the international community to be prepared than be caught unawares should the worst come to pass for Guinea.