Guinean imports are projected to increase by 10 percent in 1996 to $816 million (with U.S. suppliers providing 11-13 percent). U.S. sales in 1993 totalled $59 million but declined to $50 million in 1994. In 1995, U.S, exports were $66.6 million, up 34 percent over 1994 levels. Through April 1996 U.S. exports were up 77 percent (to $36.5 million) over the same period in 1995. Best export prospects over the next three years include machinery and intermediate goods, spare parts, and processed consumables. Most of the increase would come from the private non-mining sector, for which imports rose by an estimated 12 percent in 1993. Taking into account ongoing donor projects and public investment program expenditures, increasing informal sector trade and production, and increase in agricultural activity, the manufactured imports are projected to increase by 5.3 percent in 1996. Agricultural imports are projected to decline annually by approximately 1 percent in 1996, assuming ongoing increases tin local production. The U.S. share of Guinea's agricultural imports was 16 percent in 1993, largely due to PL-480 rice shipments. The volume and variety of imports will continue to be impeded by the limited absorptive capacity of the still underdeveloped Guinean economy.
The U.S. share of Guinea's manufactured imports was 4.8 percent in 1993, however, the projected growth in manufactured and industrial imports makes this a best prospects sector for U.S. manufacturers. U.S. firms have successfully penetrated the market for mining equipment -particularly to bauxite production companies. U.S. firms have also sold computers, trucks, and various nervices to donor sponsored development projects.
Other sales opportunities, while thinner, exist for the alert entrepreneur. Examples of successful U.S. exports to the general market include textiles, used clothing, used tires, and canned and dry supermarket goods. A few large importers have introduced U.S. food products to the local market, including milled rice, pickled fruits and vegetables, sauces and condiments, soft drinks, and beer. Several U.S. passenger and industrial vehicles are becoming more visible on Conakry's streets, and a market exists for used cars and parts. A few Conakry merchants have also introduced U.S. manufactured outboard motors and U.S. made furniture.
The keys to sales in the mining, donor project, and general markets are French language ability, patience with the long selling time necessary, and very clear contractural terms including an irrevocable letter of credit and/or advance payment. Entering a successful partnership or representational arrangement can be extremely difficult in Guinea's newly developing private sector and still evolving legal structure. The local Chamber of Commerce, the Employers' Association, and Government offices of investment promotion are good central points of contact with the local business community.
The major competition for U.S. firms is from French interests. About 100 companies with French participation operate in Guinea, whereby they currently lead in the import market with about a 20 percent share. Much of this activity benefits directly or indirectly from French government support.
Overall best sales prospects in 1996 and later years for U.S. products include:
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